Official Community Plan

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COURTENAY AT A GLANCE: PEOPLE, EMPLOYMENT, HOUSING, AND LAND

Population and Demographics

Figure A–2 Courtenay Population Projections (2016 – 2051). (Sources: Statistics Canada, 2016; Colliers International Consulting, 2020; Drake Turner & Partners Ltd., 2020)

Population forecasting was conducted in 2020 to estimate Courtenay’s 2021 population and generate population forecasts, based on 2016 census data. The population forecasting conducted at that time estimated the 2021 population to be 27,290 and indicated that Courtenay is expected to grow by 4,500 more residents, and 2,900 more dwelling units, over 2016 census population figures, by 2031. The subsequent land use research and modelling used to inform the OCP's growth strategy was calibrated to accommodate those stated population and dwelling count estimates. At the time of the final drafting of this plan, Statistics Canada released the first of seven schedules of 2021 census data (basic population and dwelling information). With a 2021 census population of 28,420, the 2021 census indicates Courtenay is growing more rapidly than projected which generated considerable interest during the OCP consultation.

Therefore, the OCP time horizon will depend on how quickly Courtenay's population grows by the additional 4,500 more residents (over 2016 population estimates). When the population target of 4,500 more residents has been achieved, additional population forecasting and additional growth planning will be conducted in order to determine how best to accommodate Courtenay’s changing population. These population forecasts will be conducted in coordination with future Housing Needs Assessments. Because the original OCP plan horizon was to 2030, a number of projections below are provided to 2030. Others are provided to 2040 and 2050 in order to forecast and align with the net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target by 2050.

City of Courtenay Official Community Plan