City of Courtenay Official Community Plan - 2026 update

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COURTENAY AT A GLANCE: PEOPLE, EMPLOYMENT, HOUSING, AND LAND

Population and Demographics

Figure A–2 Courtenay Historical and Anticipated Population Projections (2016 – 2041). (Sources: City of Courtenay Housing Needs Report, 2024; Turner Drake & Partners Ltd.)

Since Courtenay's 2022 OCP adoption, the annual population growth rates have exceeded the OCP projected growth rates. The Province of BC now requires municipalities to adopt Housing Needs Reports (HNR) every 5 years, alongside OCP reviews and updates. Local governments are also required to ensure that the projected 5-year and 20-year housing need can be accommodated through zoning and OCP land use. The population projections considered in this OCP are in alignment with the 2024 Housing Needs Report which cites BC Stats projections for a population of 42,415 by the year 2041, up from 29,530 in 2021. This indicates that Courtenay is expected to grow by 13,345 more residents, and 8,351 units by 2041. Subsequent land use research and infrastructure analysis is used to inform the OCP's growth strategy to accommodate those stated 20-year population and dwelling count estimates.

The OCP time horizon will depend on how quickly Courtenay's population grows by the additional 13,345 residents (over 2021 population estimates). In alignment with future Housing Needs Reports, additional population forecasting and growth planning will be conducted every 5 years in order to determine how best to accommodate Courtenay's changing population. Explanation of Population Difference (2021): BC Stats population projections (29,530) are slightly higher than the 2021 Census count (28,420) because projections incorporate an estimate of Census undercoverage. Undercoverage refers to residents who were not captured in the official Census enumeration. By adjusting for this known gap, BC Stats aims to reflect a more complete estimate of the true population.

City of Courtenay Official Community Plan